Chinese Module Prices Set to Rise 20%? Smart Buyers Are Moving to pv.market

Major Industry
Update: A Turning Point in Solar Procurement
China has begun
withdrawing export supports for solar modules, including the long-standing
export VAT rebate — marking a structural shift in the global solar supply
chain. Early market research and price signals indicate a meaningful
correction: module prices are expected to climb materially through Q4 2025.
What changed
- End of the export VAT rebate (13%) — China is removing or sharply reducing
export tax rebates that helped keep Chinese modules extremely low-cost for
global buyers. This fiscal move is a direct upward pressure on export
prices.
- Upstream integration — Manufacturers are consolidating
silicon-to-module value chains, which improves stability but raises
marginal manufacturing costs that flow into export prices.
- Quality-first national strategy
(2025–2030) — Policy
signals point to a pivot from price-led growth toward R&D, quality
standards, and fewer aggressive discount cycles. Expect better product
performance — but fewer deep discounts and tighter price control.
Global implications
(what buyers & EPCs should expect)
- Panel prices projected to rise 9–20% by
end-2025 (range depends
on how quickly manufacturers pass on rebate removal and any supply
adjustments).
- Longer procurement lead times while supply chains and logistics adjust.
- Higher inventory pressure for distributors who stocked expecting
ultra-low prices.
- Diversification moves toward regional suppliers and alternative
sourcing hubs.
- Greater focus on warranties, insurance,
and local after-sales support to mitigate quality/performance risk.
Quick, actionable
recommendations
- Secure inventory now — locking price and stock before Q4 2025
can protect margins.
- Re-run ROI on active projects — adjust LCOE and payback assumptions
with +9–20% module scenarios.
- Diversify your supplier mix — identify regional hubs and European /
Middle East alternatives to shorten lead times.
- Prioritize warranty & insurance — prefer suppliers offering QBE-backed
warranties and clear local recourse.
- Use verified marketplaces — platforms with real-time stock,
verified suppliers, and transparent pricing can reduce procurement
friction.
How pv.market helps
— the competitive advantage
pv.market helps EPCs,
distributors, and buyers manage this transition with tools and services
designed to protect margins and secure supply:
- Regional stock hubs: Immediate procurement to shorten lead
times.
- Spot price visibility: Real-time updates so you can time buys
or hedge effectively.
- Warranties: Ensuring trust, safety, and
long-term performance assurance.
- Verified global network: Vetted suppliers across Europe, MENA,
and Africa to diversify risk.
- Simplified procurement: Transparent listings, secure
transactions, and quick logistics options to reduce time-to-site.
Data snapshot &
charts
To help readers
visualize the likely impact, we include two compact visuals:
- 2025 Module
Price Index — baseline + two scenarios
·
Baseline: Observed index through mid-2025 (Jan = 100).
·
Conservative scenario: ~+9% by Dec 2025 (policy change passed
through partially).
·
Severe scenario: ~+20% by Dec 2025 (faster/full pass-through
across the chain).
- Polysilicon spot price (Jan–Aug 2025)
- Shows a mid-year rebound in polysilicon
(reported company/market data indicate a rebound from low levels to
material increases in July 2025). Polysilicon is a leading cost input;
its jump supports module price pressure.
Note: charts are compiled from public reports and
filings (see sources below). They are illustration-ready that is creates
conservative and severe scenarios so readers can see the range of possible
outcomes and make procurement decisions accordingly.
Conclusion
China’s export rebate
withdrawal and a shift to a quality-first industrial approach mark the end of
the ultra-low-cost era for modules. The companies that act fast — diversifying
suppliers, securing stock, and using transparent, verified platforms like pv.market
— will protect margins and win more bids in 2026 and beyond.
- Compiled by Mr. Albert, Manager at pv.market
Sources (key
references)
- Wood Mackenzie: “Solar and storage costs
are set to increase 9% in Q4 2025” (press release/analysis). Wood
Mackenzie
- Electrek: “The era of cheap Chinese solar
+ storage is ending” (policy summary). Electrek
- Reuters: Reporting on China export tax
rebate changes and exporter reactions. Reuters+1
- Company filings & analyst coverage: Daqo New Energy Q2/Q1 2025 statements showing polysilicon price moves. The
Motley Fool+1
- Mercom / industry press summarizing policy
shift effects on module pricing and procurement. Mercomindia.com
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Comments (1)
Good information & forecast
