Chinese Module Prices Set to Rise 20%? Smart Buyers Are Moving to pv.market

Major Industry Update: A Turning Point in Solar Procurement

China has begun withdrawing export supports for solar modules, including the long-standing export VAT rebate — marking a structural shift in the global solar supply chain. Early market research and price signals indicate a meaningful correction: module prices are expected to climb materially through Q4 2025.

What changed

1. End of the export VAT rebate (13%) — China is removing or sharply reducing export tax rebates that helped keep Chinese modules extremely low-cost for global buyers. This fiscal move is a direct upward pressure on export prices.
2. Upstream integration — Manufacturers are consolidating silicon-to-module value chains, which improves stability but raises marginal manufacturing costs that flow into export prices.
3. Quality-first national strategy (2025–2030) — Policy signals point to a pivot from price-led growth toward R&D, quality standards, and fewer aggressive discount cycles. Expect better product performance — but fewer deep discounts and tighter price control.

Global implications (what buyers & EPCs should expect)

• Panel prices projected to rise 9–20% by end-2025 (range depends on how quickly manufacturers pass on rebate removal and any supply adjustments).
• Longer procurement lead times while supply chains and logistics adjust.
• Higher inventory pressure for distributors who stocked expecting ultra-low prices.
• Diversification moves toward regional suppliers and alternative sourcing hubs.
• Greater focus on warranties, insurance, and local after-sales support to mitigate quality/performance risk.

Quick, actionable recommendations

1. Secure inventory now — locking price and stock before Q4 2025 can protect margins.
2. Re-run ROI on active projects — adjust LCOE and payback assumptions with +9–20% module scenarios.
3. Diversify your supplier mix — identify regional hubs and European / Middle East alternatives to shorten lead times.
4. Prioritize warranty & insurance — prefer suppliers offering QBE-backed warranties and clear local recourse.
5. Use verified marketplaces — platforms with real-time stock, verified suppliers, and transparent pricing can reduce procurement friction.

How pv.market helps — the competitive advantage

pv.market helps EPCs, distributors, and buyers manage this transition with tools and services designed to protect margins and secure supply:

• Regional stock hubs: Immediate procurement to shorten lead times.
• Spot price visibility: Real-time updates so you can time buys or hedge effectively.
• Warranties: Ensuring trust, safety, and long-term performance assurance.
• Verified global network: Vetted suppliers across Europe, MENA, and Africa to diversify risk.
• Simplified procurement: Transparent listings, secure transactions, and quick logistics options to reduce time-to-site.

Data snapshot & charts

To help readers visualize the likely impact, we include two compact visuals:

1. 2025 Module Price Index — baseline + two scenarios

·        Baseline: Observed index through mid-2025 (Jan = 100).

·        Conservative scenario: ~+9% by Dec 2025 (policy change passed through partially).

·        Severe scenario: ~+20% by Dec 2025 (faster/full pass-through across the chain).

2. Polysilicon spot price (Jan–Aug 2025)
• Shows a mid-year rebound in polysilicon (reported company/market data indicate a rebound from low levels to material increases in July 2025). Polysilicon is a leading cost input; its jump supports module price pressure.

Note: charts are compiled from public reports and filings (see sources below). They are illustration-ready that is creates conservative and severe scenarios so readers can see the range of possible outcomes and make procurement decisions accordingly.

Conclusion

China’s export rebate withdrawal and a shift to a quality-first industrial approach mark the end of the ultra-low-cost era for modules. The companies that act fast — diversifying suppliers, securing stock, and using transparent, verified platforms like pv.market — will protect margins and win more bids in 2026 and beyond.

- Compiled by Mr. Albert, Manager at pv.market

Sources (key references)

• Wood Mackenzie: “Solar and storage costs are set to increase 9% in Q4 2025” (press release/analysis). Wood Mackenzie
• Electrek: “The era of cheap Chinese solar + storage is ending” (policy summary). Electrek
• Reuters: Reporting on China export tax rebate changes and exporter reactions. Reuters+1
• Company filings & analyst coverage: Daqo New Energy Q2/Q1 2025 statements showing polysilicon price moves. The Motley Fool+1
• Mercom / industry press summarizing policy shift effects on module pricing and procurement. Mercomindia.com